Episode 68: 2025 in Review and What to Know Heading Into 2026

Hosts: Madison Demora and Mike Garry

Episode Overview

As we head into 2026, what lessons can we take from a year of major change? In this episode of Not Just Numbers, Mike and Madison break down the biggest developments of 2025 and what they mean for planning ahead. The discussion focuses on the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA), including permanent tax law changes, higher standard deductions, new benefits for seniors, expanded SALT caps, and important incentives for business owners. Mike also explains the major increase in federal estate and gift tax exemptions and why this may be a unique window for advanced estate planning. The episode wraps up with a look at market performance, economic trends, and key factors to watch in 2026—highlighting why proactive, coordinated planning is more important than ever.

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TIMESTAMPS

00:08 – 01:14 – Introduction

01:15 – 03:40 – The One Big Beautiful Bill – What Changed

03:41 – 04:50 – Estate and Gift Tax Opportunities

04:51 – 05: 56 – Trade, Energy, and Economic Shifts

05:57 – 06:57 – Market Performance and Economic Overview

06:58 – 08:23 – Closing

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Episode Glossary

  • Standard Deduction: A fixed dollar amount that reduces taxable income without requiring itemized expenses.
    • 2026 amounts:
      • $15,750 for single filers
      • $31,500 for married couples filing jointly

    These amounts are indexed for inflation.

    Emerging Market Economy: The economy of a country that is undergoing a transition toward greater economic growth, global business engagement, and industrialization

Key Takeaways

  • OBBBA made 2017 TCJA provisions permanent: Many individual and business tax cuts from 2017 are now locked in, providing long-term predictability.
  • Standard deduction doubled: $15,750 single / $31,500 joint (indexed for inflation) — fewer people itemize, simplifying filing and lowering taxes.
  • Senior bonus deduction: Temporary $6,000 extra deduction for age 65+ through 2028 (with income limits) — meaningful for retirement planning.
  • Business incentives strengthened: 100% bonus depreciation permanent + 20% QBI deduction maintained — strong for reinvestment and equipment-heavy firms.
  • SALT cap raised to $40,000: With phaseouts — helps high-tax state residents (NY, NJ, CA) while encouraging spending/investment.
  • Estate exemption now $15M/person ($30M/couple): Permanent and inflation-indexed from 2026 — big window for SLATs, GRATs, Dynasty Trusts.
  • Energy & trade shifts: National energy emergency expanded domestic production; new tariffs on autos/steel/pharma — mixed short-term volatility, possible long-term reshoring.
  • 2025 market/economy recap: S&P +15%, NASDAQ +18%, foreign/emerging funds +40–50%; GDP 3.8%, inflation ~2.9%, unemployment <4% — fundamentals solid despite headlines.
  • 2026 watch list: Trade deals, Fed rate cuts (0.75%), midterms — expect slower GDP (1.7%), but fundamentals still drive long-term outcomes.

Transcript

Podcast Transcript: Ep. 68 – 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Introduction

Madison: Hello, everyone, and welcome to Not Just Numbers, Honest Conversations with a Financial Advisor and Lawyer. I am Madison Demora and I’m here with Mike Garry. Mike is a financial advisor and a CFP practitioner and the founder and the CEO of Yardley Wealth Management. He is also an estate planning lawyer, and his law firm is Yardley Estate Planning. Hey, Mike.

Mike: Hey, Madison. How are you?

Madison: I’m good. How are you?

Mike: I’m good.

Madison: Good, good. So, as we head into 2026, we wanted to take a step back and look at what shaped 2025, from the new tax legislation to shifts in trade and energy policy, plus the broader economic picture that’s setting the stage for the year ahead.

Mike: Maddie, it really was a year of significant change. The One Big Beautiful Bill, the OBBBA, introduced some of the most notable tax updates we’ve seen in years.

Madison: Absolutely. So today I’ll be asking Mike to help us break down what these changes mean for you, your family, and your business as we look toward planning for 2026. Mike, let’s start with the OBBBA. What were the most important updates people should know about?

OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill) Overview

Mike: I think a big one is that many provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act were made permanent. The bill also introduced updates meant to simplify planning and stimulate growth.

Standard Deduction Increase

Madison: I know the standard deduction increase got a lot of attention, can you walk us through that?

Mike: Sure. You know, the standard deduction now is $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for joint filers, and both are indexed for inflation. So, those are big numbers, I mean, that is a lot. You know, if you want to compare that from a few years ago, it’s like double what it was. And what that means is many fewer people need to itemize. Right. Because they just take the standard deduction and they pay less tax that way. And so, this gives households more predictability and greatly simplifies tax filing.

Senior Bonus Deduction

Madison: There was also something called the “senior bonus” deduction, right?

Mike: Yep. A temporary $6,000 deduction for Americans age 65 and older, available through 2028, with income limits. It’s a modest but meaningful benefit that’s worth including in multi-year planning.

Business Provisions & Incentives

Madison: And what about business owners? Anything significant for them?

Mike: Quite a bit. You know, the bill made 100% bonus depreciation permanent and maintained the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction. Both are strong incentives for reinvestment, especially for equipment-heavy businesses.

SALT Cap Increase

Madison: And the SALT cap changed too?

Mike: Yep. SALT cap increased from $10,000 to $40,000, with phaseouts for high earners. It’s another way the bill attempts to give taxpayers more flexibility while encouraging spending and investment. You know, it’s kind of walking back the limit that was placed because the blue states tend to have more, states with higher income tax, so, people who were hurt by this were mostly, New York, New Jersey, California residents.

Estate & Gift Planning Changes

Madison: So overall, it sounds like we have more predictable tax environments, at least for now.

Mike: Exactly. But predictability also means it’s important to review strategies early in 2026 to make sure you’re taking full advantage of the current rules.

Madison: Alright, so, the OBBBA didn’t just impact income taxes. What changed around estate and gift planning?

Mike: Saw a major shift. We now have a permanent federal exemption of $15 million per person, or $30 million for married couples. And that’s indexed for inflation starting in 2026.

Madison: That’s huge. But you always remind clients that “permanent” doesn’t always mean forever.

Mike: Exactly. Future legislation could absolutely bring these levels down. If there’s one thing we know for sure is they’re going to change the tax rules. That’s why now is a unique window for strategies that take advantage of the elevated exemptions.

Madison: What kind of strategies are getting the most attention?

Mike: So, we’re seeing strong interest in things like Spousal Lifetime Access Trust (SLATs) GRATs, and Dynasty Trusts, all designed to lock in these higher exemptions. Coordinating with your estate attorney and CPA ensures these strategies are efficient and compliant.

Madison: And state taxes still matter too, right?

Mike: They always do. Several states still have their own estate or inheritance taxes, so state-level planning remains essential.

Trade & Energy Policy Shifts

Madison: Outside of tax changes, 2025 brought a lot of policy movement in trade and energy. Can you talk about what changed?

Mike: Sure. The administration declared a “national energy emergency,” which expanded domestic production and eased permitting rules for fossil fuel projects. It sparked debate, some see increased energy independence, others see a step back from environmental priorities.

Madison: And there were new tariffs as well?

Mike: Yes, tariffs on autos, steel, pharmaceuticals and other imports. They created short-term volatility, but they also pushed companies to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S.

Madison: So a short-term shakeup for what could be long-term opportunity?

Mike: Well, yeah, maybe. Who knows? I mean, we’re already seeing some new domestic projects in advanced manufacturing infrastructure. But then, you know, in other places, they’ve stopped domestic manufacturing. So I think it’s a mixed bag, really try to figure things out. And, you know, it’s really important to try to keep perspective as the policies continue to evolve.

2025 Market & Economy Recap

Madison: Alright, so despite all these changes, the markets held up pretty well in 2025. What stood out to you?

Mike: So, the S&P500 finished up around 15%, and the NASDAQ gained nearly 18%. We also saw the funds we use for foreign investments went up a lot, like 40%. And the fund FRDM that we’ve used for emerging markets was up over 50%, I think. Or it was up 50%, like through January at some point compared to a year earlier. It was up a whole lot. You know, tech, especially AI related companies, continue to lead. But even fixed income saw improvement as inflation eased.

Madison: And the economy itself held pretty steady too?

Mike: Yes, we saw 3.8% GDP growth in the second quarter, the strongest since 2023. Inflation dropped around 2.9%, and unemployment stayed below 4%. Headlines were dramatic, but fundamentals remain solid.

Major Forces to Watch in 2026

Madison: So as we look ahead, what are the major forces to watch in 2026?

Mike: Yeah, unfortunately, it’s the big ones, right, trade agreements, interest rate policy, and the midterm elections.

Madison: And how might those influence the economy?

Mike: Well, trade negotiations will affect inflation and consumer prices. Economists expect slower GDP growth, around 1.7%, and likely rate cuts totaling around 0.75% through the year. But you know, you really never know what’s going to happen with those.

Madison: And of course, election year volatility always comes up.

Mike: Yep. Historically, markets tend to focus more on economic data than politics over time. But policy can move market short-term, you know, usually, usually fundamentals drive long-term outcomes.

Closing Remarks

Madison: Alright, Mike, so as 2026 begins, it’s a great time to make sure your financial and tax plans reflect the latest changes, from tax law updates to estate strategies and shifting economic conditions.

Mike: And collaboration really is key. The best outcomes tend to come when your financial advisor, CPA and attorney are working together to ensure nothing gets overlooked.

Madison: If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that preparation and flexibility matter.

Mike: Absolutely. Thank you all for joining us and we’ll keep sharing updates and insights throughout the year ahead.

Madison: For more information on Yardley Wealth Management or Yardley Estate Planning, you can visit our websites at yardleywealth.net and yardleyestate.net. You can also follow us on socials at Yardley Wealth Management. Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel. This podcast has been produced by Madison Demora and Mike Garry with technical and artistic help from Poe Productions.

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